Thanks to COVID-19, emissions and coal use may have peaked in 2019 – ProWellTech
If BloombergNEF analysts are right, then all the world’s most polluting greenhouse gas days are behind us, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.
A sharp drop in energy demand caused by the global response to the coronavirus pandemic will remove 2.5 years of emissions from the energy sector between now and 2050, according to BloombergNEF’s latest New Energy Outlook.
The latest models from the analyst firm tracking the evolution of the global energy system show emissions from fuel combustion will likely have peaked in 2019.
The company’s models show that global emissions have fallen by about 20% following the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and while those emissions will rise again with economic recovery, BloombergNEF’s models will never see emissions catch up. the levels of 2019. And from 2027, emissions are expected to decline at a rate of 0.7% per year until 2050.
These rosy projections are based on the hypothesis of a massive construction boom for wind and solar energy, the adoption of electric vehicles and improved energy efficiency in all sectors.
Together, wind and solar are projected to account for 56% of global electricity production by mid-century and, together with batteries, consume $ 15.1 trillion invested in new power generation over the next 30 years. The company also plans to invest another $ 14 trillion in the energy grid by 2050.
The rain on this new energy parade could come from India and China, which have long relied on coal energy to keep their national economies moving. But even in these colossal coal consumers the Bloomberg report sees good news for people who like good news.
Coal power is expected to peak in China in 2027 and India in 2030. Coal is projected to account for only 12% of global electricity consumption by 2050. But even with the wave of gas-powered renewable energy it is not dead. It remains the only fossil fuel to continue growing until 2050, albeit at an anemic 0.5% per year.
No one should break champagne based on these projections, however, because the current trajectory still sees the globe on course to reach a 3.3 degree Celsius temperature rise by 2100.
“The next ten years will be crucial for the energy transition,” said Jon Moore, chief executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “There are three fundamental things we will need to see: accelerated spread of wind and photovoltaics; faster consumer uptake of electric vehicles, small-scale renewables and low-carbon heating technology, such as heat pumps; and large-scale development and deployment of zero-carbon fuels “.
And a three-degree rise in temperature is negative. At that temperature, large areas of the world would be unlivable due to widespread drought, rainfall in Mexico and Central America would decrease by about half, southern Africa could be exposed to a water crisis, and large portions of nations would be covered by dunes of sand (including pieces of Botswana and much of the western United States). The Rocky Mountains would be snowless and the Colorado River could be reduced to a stream, according to this description in Climate Code Red.
“To stay well below two degrees of global temperature rise, we would have to cut emissions by 6% every year starting now and to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C, emissions would have to decrease by 10% at year, “Matthias Kimmel, a senior analyst and co-author of the latest report, said in a statement.